Ensemble: Difference between revisions
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|definition=A group of parallel model simulations used for climate projections. Variation of the results across the ensemble members gives an estimate of uncertainty. Ensembles made with the same model but different initial conditions only characterise the uncertainty associated with internal climate variability, whereas multi-model ensembles including simulations by several models also include the impact of model differences. Perturbed-parameter ensembles, in which model parameters are varied in a systematic manner, aim to produce a more objective estimate of modelling uncertainty than is possible with traditional multi-model ensembles. | |definition=A group of parallel model simulations used for climate projections. Variation of the results across the ensemble members gives an estimate of uncertainty. Ensembles made with the same model but different initial conditions only characterise the uncertainty associated with internal climate variability, whereas multi-model ensembles including simulations by several models also include the impact of model differences. Perturbed-parameter ensembles, in which model parameters are varied in a systematic manner, aim to produce a more objective estimate of modelling uncertainty than is possible with traditional multi-model ensembles. | ||
|source=Glossar für das Forschungsprogramm KLIWAS, Mehling, Andrea et al., Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde, Koblenz 2011 | |source=translated from "Glossar für das Forschungsprogramm KLIWAS, Mehling, Andrea et al., Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde, Koblenz 2011" | ||
|name_de=Ensemble | |name_de=Ensemble | ||
}} | }} | ||
Latest revision as of 06:36, 8 June 2017
Definition
A group of parallel model simulations used for climate projections. Variation of the results across the ensemble members gives an estimate of uncertainty. Ensembles made with the same model but different initial conditions only characterise the uncertainty associated with internal climate variability, whereas multi-model ensembles including simulations by several models also include the impact of model differences. Perturbed-parameter ensembles, in which model parameters are varied in a systematic manner, aim to produce a more objective estimate of modelling uncertainty than is possible with traditional multi-model ensembles.
Synonyms
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Source
translated from "Glossar für das Forschungsprogramm KLIWAS, Mehling, Andrea et al., Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde, Koblenz 2011"